This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Beijing, China. The tournaments are much smaller on DraftKings this week, so I think that it’s a great week to concentrate more on cash games. The most important GPP is the $8 entrance that pays $10K to 1st place. That is the best one to pursue in my opinion. I will have a few LUs that I placed into a lot of GPPs hoping I can win all of them, but I won’t have lots of LUs in complete this week. Other than that, most of my play with this week will probably be in the money games. Mostly H2Hs. With that said, here are a couple of plays I enjoy for UFC Beijing, as well as my fade of the week.
Money Game play of this week — Song Yadong ($9,100)
I believe Song Yadong might be the best drama on the card this weekend and there are 4 fighters priced higher than him. Yadong is a -500 favorite on Saturday and I think that is a struggle the UFC is wanting him to triumph in his home nation. I think in championships, Yadong will be the greatest owned fighter on the card with 3 women fighters priced above him, with much smaller chances of winning ITD. I think you may make a situation to fade him because of his ownership in GPPs, but in cash games we don’t care about ownership. I believe that this is a great place to lock in a triumph and maybe ~100-points, then try to find 3 more wins that we are able to afford. More frequently than maybe 4 wins gets the job done in money games.
GPP play of the week — Rashad Coulter ($8,400)
This battle has got the 2nd highest FDGTD lineup on the card in -400. There’s also value on Hu Yaozong with him $600 cheaper and the gambling line being almost even. Usually when there is value like that on an underdog it makes them one of the very popular fighters on the card. I don’t think either of those men are UFC level fighters, but I am a little more impressed with what I’ve observed from Coulter than this inexperienced Yaozong. I think getting Coulter at GPP lineups at a lower ownership than Yaozong makes sense this weekend at a fight which shouldn’t go all 3-rounds. If both of these guys get an early finish they will likely be about the winning lineup. I’m imagining Coulter are the reduced owned guy of the two and that’s what makes him my GPP play of this week.
Underdog play of the week — Francis Ngannou ($7,500)
There really aren’t many underdogs I love to target this week to get UFC Beijing. I haven’t loved producing lineups this week because I hate plugging in two underdogs when I think virtually every favorite will get a win. I think the best underdog to target this week is Francis Ngannou because he has a clear path to success and he has won in this matchup before. The path to victory for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has got the power to be able to KO anyone on the planet. If he can get a KO at $7.5k then he probably ends up on the 1st place lineup, particularly if it’s an early KO. From the first battle between these two guys Blaydes was able to get 2 takedowns, but Ngannou was able to get up fairly quickly each time. If he is able to end up like that again here, I don’t see any way Blaydes are going to have the aerobic to attempt and wrestle for 5-rounds. I think Ngannou is your scarier man on the feet and I don’t see Blaydes wanting to attack for long amounts of time. I believe Ngannou is live for an upset here but onto a card, I don’t like many underdogs I think he’s the best you to target with his 1st round KO upsidedown. Fade of this week — Lauren Mueller ($9,200)
I really don’t like targeting at least one of these ladies in the 9k range. I believe they should all get wins, but I don’t find any of them getting 10x their wages. For Mueller, she’d want at least 92 DK points to hit 10x and I think she’s to get a conclusion to make that occur. Mueller has 5 wins her MMA record and just 1 of the wins did not go to decision. She also only scored 72 DK points in her 1 UFC win. If she scores 72 at $9.2k then she won’t be winning anyone a tournament. In addition, I think Zhang and Xiaonan have greater odds of winning than Mueller does so that’s why I chose her over both as my fade of this week. I won’t be making a great deal of lineups this week but when I had been making 20 lineups afterward Mueller will be on among them.
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