This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Philly on big ESPN. DraftKings has some strong contests and that I look forward to pursuing the huge GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $500k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that match. I won my very first seat into it a couple weeks back and I will attempt to get my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the top GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at the $30 decoration, and then I will probably have a couple shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good quantity of drama into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Main Event Stack, Justin Gaethje AND Edson Barboza
When I pile a fight in cash games I want a minimum of 100 total points. Ideally more like 150 or more, but I’ll take 100-point floor with all the guaranteed win. With Gaethje fights, we are pretty much locked into that 100+ and we have seen his struggles even complete over 200 DK points. He’s the perfect style for accruing DraftKings points and should we use Edson as well, then we’re guaranteed a win and probably 150+ points. Give me that day. This is how I’ll be starting my money lineup and I will figure out the rest from there. I shall take the loss because we don’t need 6 wins in cash games. 1st place and 5th place get paid the exact same at a 10-man double-up, so I’m not shooting for first and I’d rather play with it safer with my cash lineups.
GPP play of this week — Enrique Barzola — $8,200
This isn’t a sneaky play at all but Barzola ought to be a great play when he shoots for takedowns. In his 5 UFC wins he’s 36 takedowns. That’s exactly what we want on DraftKings. Every takedown is 5-points plus he can rack up enough to score 100+ points. If he can score over 100 DK points here at $8.2k he’s for sure going to win a person $30k. I really do expect him to be chalky this week, but he’s a lot of scoring potential for me to fade the chalk. I will probably be in accord with the field on ownership with my lineups, maybe overweight.
Underdog play of this week — Michelle Waterson — $7,600
I like Waterson here because she’s the fighter that will be searching for takedowns in this fight. I think she can get a few and she could be able to lock up a submission if that’s the case. That is her ceiling in this fight, but I enjoy her more for cash games because of her floor. I don’t see KK completing Waterson, so I believe we get three complete rounds of scoring out of her. In a loss she could put up 30-40 DK points and in cash games that is fine. I’ll be using her in GPPs as well, but I don’t think she submits KK. I would guess she places up around ~80 DK points at a decision win if she’s able to receive the victory.
Fade of this week — Sabina Mazo ($8,800)
I’m spreading my exposure out on most of the favorites this week at GPPs but Mazo is the only I’m interested in the very least. I believe the only way she outscores her 8.8k salary is by getting a second head kick KO. I really don’t think that’s very probable at all and that I feel a decision win is likely for her. I don’t see her going for any takedowns or getting many/any knockdowns, therefore that I do not see how she scores tremendously in a decision triumph. I have zero lineups using Mazo this week and if I was making 100 lineups I would still probably full fade her. Hopefully it does not burn me, however, she’s my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I’m 63-41for +210.99 (+$21,099) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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